By Naram Sargon
Never take any sip from the grail of victory while you are still in the midst of the battle or in the midst of the fight. Victory has the same color, type, characteristics, rhyme, and tunes of wine. Both are intoxicating. Are the letters of victory derived from wine, or is wine stilled from the nectar of victory, one may rightly wonder.
In the few hours that followed the downing of an Israeli warplane, what has impressed me most was the calmness shown by the Syrian leadership. It tells about an impressive prudence. What I have understood from close contacts with some knowledge about how the Syrian leadership thinks was the following: Long before taking the decision to shoot down the invading warplanes, the Syrian Leadership has charted out a map featuring out how the Israeli mindset works. Next to this was a map featuring both the terrain and the bank of potential targets in all these areas extending from the Golan Heights down to the Negev Desert. A map featuring out the “Israeli brain” and what “potential targets” this brain might be thinking of or planning to hit. How it might react? What points or targets that, if hit, might drive them mad. All of these have been one of the key maps known to the axis of resistance. The Syrian leadership was 100 percent sure that the Israeli warplane would be hit and downed. All potential possibilities: Where, how and when the Israelis would retaliate have all been well contemplated and thought of. The map, featuring out the Israeli brain, was drawn with full knowledge of the Jewish psychological complexes, including the mentality of “revenge” prevalent in these settler communities who live in constant fear of an existential threat. Paradoxically enough: As they live in a constant state of fear of an imminent existential threat and destruction, they still maintain a hollow myth-based racist arrogance.
The Syrian leadership has laid out all potential military and intelligence probabilities. The shooting down of their warplanes is a strike bringing down the very roof under which they live. It symbolizes the fall down of their last shelter.
Since ever Israelhas lost the “invincibility” of its ground forces with the humiliating defeat of its armored vehicles, infantry forces and Merkava tanks in the 2006 war, the only card they had was their air force. With this last resort of theirs is being also humiliated, what is left? Nothing is left other than the atomic bombs.
The Israeli mindset is brought up to the idea that they can not live without a powerful and reliable “protective weapon”. They take refuge under the cover of their weapons the same way they put on their Kippa (cap) all the time. We can, therefore, imagine their pressing and unyielding passion for revenge against the Syrians so they might calm down their hubrind sense of fear and anxiety, as Israel is now stripped of its “invincible weapon” and laidbare with no proper shield. This sense of panic was self-illustrated by the hordes of settlers swarming bunkers, shelters and bus stations to flee the “North Nightmare”, where the Israeli home was rendered roofless.
The Israelis would surely seek to retaliate and revenge. But where the next retaliation or act of revenge might take place?
I do admit lacking any access to the studies developed by the Syrian Leadership, who are analyzing the Israeli military& sociological mindset and who have put this “creature called “ Israel” under scientific observation just as biologists observe any wild creature, but I can claim a semblance of knowledge about the qualities of the Syrian leadership’s calm and confident mindset. The Syrian mindset attentively follows up all events unfolding on the Syrian territories and prudently tries to understand them and see beyond. According to the available data, Israel has two options to restore its “dignity” and overcome its suicidal outrage: A military one and an intelligence one.
The military option would require them to deal a harsh military strike to the Syrian Arab Army or its high top brass. This might be their only option to repair the roof that tumbled down on their heads. But this option is too risky and dangerous to be adopted. What has befallen their proud warplane indicates that the price would be too heavy to bear. Moreover, such an option would not work unless the US gets directly involved. In other words, the Americans would rebuild for the Israelis a more reliable “roof”. But here again, there is a risk to be taken. What if the downing of the Israeli warplane was made with an implicit Russian approval?
For some times, rumors were circulating that the Russians were pressing Syrian military men to exercise self-restraint and not to retaliate to Israeli provocations. The Syrians respect the advices of friendly Russia, who reasoned that such reprisals should better wait until the largest parts of Syria are liberated. Otherwise, the liberation process would be disrupted. Retaliation to each and every Israeli act of provocation would impede the on-going march of liberation.
The downing of the Russian plane over Idelb might provide the answer.
The US implicit complicity in the downing of the Russian plane overIdleb might have prompted Moscow to secretly concede to the Syrian missiles be fired at the raiding Israeli F-16.
If true, this would be a plain Russian message to the Israelis and via them to the Americans, that Russia would go on with its mission and would continue to cleanse the Syrian territories from terrorists. It would continue to help Syria establish its sovereignty allover the Syrian territories. It also means that Russia is fed up with the games being played by the Americans and of their incessant attempts to undermine the Russian accomplishments. If true, this would mean that the downing of any Russian plane from now on would trigger a direct hit at the US warplanes. The Russians would no longer press their Syrian partners against firing their missiles at illegal US warplanes. With the direct hit scored against the Israeli F-16, there is plentiful evidence that the US warplanes would not be able to withstand similar strikes. This would be a huge embarrassment to Washington. If such a scenario was to be played, the US would be lured into a war with the entire axis of resistance at a time when it is still licking its wounds from the Iraq war.
Although the direct military Israeli retaliation might be passionately-desired by the Israelis, but it would entail a “massacre” to the Israeli air force. It would also mean that Russians would not longer curtail any future Syrian Army retaliation. The US would not like such a scenario, for sure.
Therefore, Israel would most probably resort to the “intelligence option” to exact its “harsh revenge”. This is what is has done in the wake of its Lebanon war in 2006. Back then, it was unable to wage a direct military confrontation: The severe losses inflicted upon its armored army and the “funerals” of the once-proud Merkavas rendering the Golani Brigade into an Ambulance-borne brigade of personnel carried on first-aid stretches made such a potential military confrontation suicidal. Hence they resorted to the intelligence services who summoned all proxy Arab intelligence agents and ordered them to help in carrying out individual and pin-pointed acts of assassination against top Hizbollah Leaders, especially Haj ImadMughnieyeh and all the leaders who have accomplished the 2006 victory.
The assassination of ImadMughniyeh may have satisfied the Israeli arrogance for a while.
But the Israelis have only felt safe enough to have a “nice sleep” when the Syrian “rebels” took it upon themselves to accomplish the Israeli Mossad Intelligence agenda, by declaring an armed insurgency against their own country and declaring their intention to destroy Hizbollah and the resistance. By that time, they started to videotape and publish photos of their acts of “revenge” against the Syrian Arab Army, against its leading officers and against its positions. In other words, the so-called “Syrian revolution” was the intelligence weapon with which Israel took revenge from all foes and was about to succeed in partioning and fragmenting Syria.
Delegates of Arab intelligence vassals and proxy “opposition figures” would no doubt be hurriedly summoned to Tel Aviv, if they have not already arrived, to offer their services and help chart out a map and a bank of targets to identify high personalities and vital Syrian facilities and infrastructure that might be hit in order to deal a moral strike to the Syrian Arab Army. Such potential acts of sabotage would most probably be perpetrated by Arab proxies or “Syrian opposition elements” serving the Mossad agendas. The so-called “opposition” may also stage another “chemical drama” to provide Trump with an alibi to launch a vengeful strike for Israel’s sake.
The surprise that both Israeli and American brains do not expect, however, is that the Syrian political and intelligence leaderships who have been preparing themselves for such retaliations long enough, have already contemplated such possibilities and have surely taken into account what “assets” inside Syria might be now in the cross-hairs and how could they be protected.
In the meantime, Syria would surely have her own retaliatory “targets” that would be hit in reprisal. The one who has shown all this patience for all these long years is surely a master who knows very well when and how to play his cards.
The wise Syrian leadership would not endorse the paradigm of : Let us enjoy our wine today and tomorrow we decide what to do. This is not the way how Syrians behave.
The one who has been intoxicated with wine for years is Netanyahu and his panic-stricken society. They have believed the hollow promises of the so-called “Syrian revolution” and have apparently been intoxicated with their own delusions.
Out of blue, all of them woke up to the bitter reality. The roof of their “spider home” has fallen down. The spiders now have no roof to shelter them against the missiles that may rain some time soon.
We say: We are vigilant and up to carry on what should be done today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.
In the language of missiles, we say: SAM 5 today. S-200 tomorrow, and S-300 the day after tomorrow. One day, later on, the “spider home” would fall down.